Tomorrow is the start of the 2012 World Memory Championship. In anticipation of the said event, I’ve posted a preview and gave a prediction on who might turn out on top for this weekend. But my methods were a bit shoddy since it was only based on the athlete’s past performances and not their current feeling or perception on how they trained or might perform. As Tobiasz Boral of Poland points out, that "anything is possible!" Luckily, an astute observation was made by Dai Griffiths, a fellow mnemonist from Wales, pointed out to me a stat on the competitor’s list that may actually give a hint on how a participant may currently gauge their training, preparation, and performance. As Dai said (not his actual words), the number of cards brought or requested from the WMC, as seen from the competitor’s list, will give an accurate forecast on how each contestant expect to perform this weekend. Assuming that the same preparation went on with the other events, it will take into account their confidence going into tomorrow’s memory tilt, which we can then use to predict how the tournament will play out.
So, what I did was get the average of three highest card requests from each country and rank them from the most to the least. Those with less than 3 members will still be divided by three, as per tournament proceedings.
The Results: Team Standings Projections
Having done that, here’s how it looks:
Projected Rank
|
Country
|
Card Ave
|
1
|
Germany
|
28.3
|
2
|
UK
|
19.7
|
3
|
China
|
19.3
|
4
|
Philippines
|
16.3
|
5
|
Sweden
|
16
|
6
|
US
|
15
|
7
|
India
|
14
|
8
|
Hong Kong
|
12.3
|
9
|
Netherlands
|
10.7
|
10
|
Denmark
|
10
|
11
|
Indonesia
|
8.3
|
t12
|
Norway
|
8
|
t12
|
Poland
|
8
|
14
|
Italy
|
7
|
15
|
France
|
6.7
|
16
|
Australia
|
5.7
|
17
|
Finland
|
5
|
t18
|
Ireland
|
2.7
|
t18
|
Pakistan
|
2.7
|
t20
|
Singapore
|
1.7
|
t20
|
Malaysia
|
1.7
|
There you have it, it is pretty much the same as yesterday's prediction where Germany would end up as World Champions except for the major jump by Sweden from a projected SECOND, to a FIFTH place finish behind the Philippines. A definite order was also established between the US of A and the Philippines, where the US is seen to land at sixth, behind Sweden. This method also allowed us to rank the rest of the teams, unlike before wherein we were hindered by the lack of information on other competitors.
See the Individual Standings Projections after the Jump..
